Many say they need to open. Many say we don’t, but we should. Based on the daily record of cases increasing and decreasing, COVID-19 will develop in a certain way. It will move upward in steps, more and more, until interventional mitigation. This can only be accomplished if we include everyone in a conscious effort, a conscious mitigation of the disease.
Because the country as a whole is reopening, when what is needed is closure, the rise and fall of the disease will follow its spread. Simply put, the more we open, the more people will be infected.
Disease progression is easy to track, because spread is so simple. Anyone not wearing a mask, anywhere in a group of people, will spread the disease, if one person in the group is infected and doesn’t know it.
This is obviously apparent in the super spread events in the federal government just recently. But what it should tell everyone, is 60% of the population, if contracted the disease there will be a much higher death rate than previously thought. That happens because the viral load grows with the degree of spread. As evidenced when a group of people completely ignores basic common sense mitigation rules for an extended period of time, and interacts with each other on a regular basis.
What happens is the group attains a viral load equal to its spread, which is high in those who are constantly open to transfer of the infection. If the transmission is within a particular group, then even one person entering the group is infected, brings the load so high, severe symptoms occur within a short period of time, and spread is wider just due to the load.
This is how less people are infected over time, because the population decreases by death within the group. That group then sees a dip in transmission, due to many being infected already. Because the load is so heavy, and growing, that group builds more groups, and those groups spread continuously and increases occur at increased rates.
The dips become more shallow, as the spikes become higher and higher, each time a group load spreads to a new group, which is easier again based on the load transfer. The evidence for this can be found in the step wise growth motion of the disease. The loads will be higher where more people are located. But at some point the transmission of virus, due to carrying a high viral load will be to everyone, even in rural areas. We are seeing evidence of that right now.
Viruses want to multiple, not reach a certain saturation point and die off. They live to make more of themselves. Something like a herd immunity would only be feasible if no one can get reinfected, after a return to base line. That will not happen. The virus will always return, it is how viruses survive. The transmission rates through groups slows and then increases, due to the load of the virus being carried within the group.
The only way to attain enough reduction in load, to slow the stepwise increase in cases is through conscious mitigation. An 8 week cessation of business, with only the most essential services functioning, a complete stop of all billing within the economic system, don’t pay any creditor or utility. Just deliver food and utilities, without any overhead costs.
Turn restaurants and grocery stores into food banks, forget profit, forget overhead, forget banks, and utilities, these can all function if all costs are mitigated. Billionaires unfortunately are terrified that people will find out they are not needed, and all the ancillary industries and fields surrounding them, just perpetuate them.
But if we do this, a return to baseline will happen quickly, completely, and three to four weeks after that, we can begin the reopening process. Without the horrifying death and illness. Without losing millions upon millions of people.
The road ahead will be a rocky one, as COVID-19 pops up in many places and the seasonal flu becomes the seasonal COVID-19. But treatments and vaccines are becoming more potent and functionally much stronger. The innovations in medicine are being brought to the forefront and the USA can join the world in this.
It takes the vote, the standing up for right, and the focus on conscious mitigation. Wearing masks at all times outside the home, taking in the homeless and doing the same, delivering masks to everyone, a hard push for the Defense Production Act. These simple mitigation techniques will, not maybe, not could, will mitigate the disease.
We will lose millions of people this coming year, without doing something, without conscious mitigation. Unifying is the way to resolution. Already we are not talking about the secondary and post infection syndromes, that can be life long and years long illness after recovery. It’s not death but is disabling to millions already. One day walking, a week later in a wheelchair, or worse, bedridden for months or years.
Conscious mitigation will resolve the secondary and long term illness problem and well as COVID-19 mitigation. Put on a mask, whoever you are, conscious mitigation is for everyone.
Viruses grow and develop, kill and maim, because we are living along party lines.
Vote with your heart, but mitigation has to be conscious, for everyone.
